Opening Day has come and gone. Again.
And so starts another season of surprises. Already one series in, a couple
teams have jumped out to a quick start. Others have not. A big surprise was the
Orioles taking two out of three from the Yankees, something that I really
enjoyed. The Sox fared no better, dropping the opening series as well. Of
course, If you’re reading this, you probably already know that. Which brings me
to my point: the opening series means nothing. I went through the weekend with
people asking “oh man, they started the season 1-2! What’s going to
happen?” The answer: they’re still going to go on to win 90 games. As much
as I hate the thought of it, the Yankees are going to do the same thing. After
all, a team doesn’t go out and spend $423.5 million in an off-season and not
win 85 games. But that’s probably going to be a rant for another day, another
blog. Because believe me, that still blows my mind. 

As has been mentioned, we’re one series
into the season. But I have not yet predicted my standings for the season. So I
suppose I’ll do that now. Like I said, the opening series means nothing.

AL East

1. New York Yankees – 98-64.

Yes,
this sucks. But I also think it’s inevitable. I mentioned to a buddy when they
first signed C.C. and A.J. that Sabathia would win 16 games, Burnett 12. I’m
still sticking to that. And I still feel that they were grossly overpayed.
Especially A.J. Then they have Wang, who is coming off an injury, but still won
19 games in each of his last two healthy seasons. Finally, Andy Pettitte, who
has been extremely consistent over the years, and Joba Chamberlain. I still
feel that Joba’s success has all been a fluke. And I still don’t think that he
can become a successful starter in the Major Leagues this year. Oh, and he’s a
massive tool. Of course, the Yankees weak spot is going to be their bullpen.
They are an extremely young group (with the exception of Mariano), and only 3
have thrown more than 100 innings. The lineup, of course, will be ridiculous.
No team in the majors can compete. Yes, Jeter, Damon, and Posada are all
getting older, and Cano has still not had that HUGE year everyone has
predicted. But no pitcher wants to face this lineup. It’s just too well rounded.

2. Boston Red Sox – 93-69

Last
season left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth after being defeated in what could
be considered another heartbreaking series. And to Tampa Bay no less. That game
5 was amazing. And the way that this team has come back from the brink of
elimination is stunning. Actually, there’s really no word for it (see 2004
ALCS!!!!). In fact, after game 5, I ran out of my dorm and sprinted to Fenway
Park barefoot. It was a great moment. After they won game 6, everyone though
they were going to win this series. But it was not to be. So, after a long
off-season with Theo Epstein sitting back and making some small but intelligent
moves, the Sox are going to be looking to get back that series. The team itself
is not retooled, and is pretty much the same from last year. I’m sure I’ll come
out with a more opinion oriented blog about the 2009 lineup at some point. But
for now, I’m picking the Sox to come in second because the lineup’s only going
to be better, and they have the deepest pitching in the major leagues.

3. Tampa Bay Rays – 88-74

Who
knew they were going to be good at some point? Nobody saw them coming, but now
they’ve got a lot to prove. They went out and added Pat Burrell, one of the
more underrated players in the game. And everyone got a year older. Which isn’t
a bad thing. Plus, David Price (although in AAA ball right now), is one of the
top prospects in baseball. So why will they come in third? Because, they have
something to prove. And because they will get outplayed by the Yankees and Red
Sox. 

4. Toronto Blue Jays – 82-80

Toronto
has won at least 80 games in 9 of the past 11 seasons. The problem is they have
only been less than 10 games back in the division once in that span. I’ve heard
that they’re a team to watch this year. I still don’t buy it. Nothing about
them, except for Roy Halladay, is anything exciting. They are an incredibly
mediocre team still. 

5. Baltimore Orioles – 71-91

They’ve
been rebuilding for years. And they’re not going to be able to compete,
especially in this division, while they’re waiting for prospects to come up.
Their rotation is terrible, and the only lineup doesn’t scare anyone. Nick
Markakis is really their only consistent threat to drive in runs. They are still
a bottom feeder. At least for this year. 

AL Central

1. Chicago White Sox – 89-73

They
have the pitching that can get them a lot of wins, and a
couple veterans that can hit, like Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye. And
if Carlos Quentin has a year similar to last year, they could be dangerous.

2. Cleveland Indians – 85-77

Still
an underrated team, but a very inconsistent team. Fausto Carmona and
Cliff Lee could combine to win almost 40 games. Or, they could combine to win
15. Cliff Lee needs to prove that his Cy Young season was actually what he’s
capable of. Furthering the uncertainty, Carl Pavano has won 9 games in the past
4 years. And nobody has any reason to believe that he can come back, especially
at age 33, and pitch like he did for the Marlins.

3. Detroit Tigers – 82-80

Remember
when they lost 119 games in a season? Two years later, they won 95 games. Last
season, they managed to get Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and were
supposed to run away with the Central title. That did not happen. They have a
lot of talent on their team, and they could be really good. But something seems
to be holding them back. Maybe the fact they have the 3rd largest payroll?

4. Minnesota Twins – 78-84

The
Twins are one of those teams that have a couple good seasons, then slowly fade
away. Joe Mauer has fizzled like no other, and they have nobody impressive to
base their team around. They’re rebuilding, and it might take some time.

5. Kansas City Royals – 70-92

I
don’t like picking the Royals to come in last. They added some good talent,
including Coco Crisp (who I think the Sox let go of too early), and they could
pull out a breakout season. In any case, I still don’t think they can break
.500 this year, even in this division of mediocrity.

AL West

1. Oakland Athletics – 92-70

Their
weak spot is the rotation, without a doubt. They don’t have an ace, and all
their projected starters for the year are under 26 years old. Combined, the
five have 18 career wins. Despite this lack of experience, they have the potential
to keep together this A’s team while the lineup wins them games. I know its
going against the common mantra “pitching wins games,” but who knows.
Billy Beane has always loved young pitchers, and it has worked out in the past.
The lineup is retooled, and they have the potential to hit their way to the top
of this division.

2. Anaheim (Los Angeles) Angels – 85-77

The
Angels lost a lot of talent this offseason. And it’s going to be tough for them
to come back from that. Not to mention the fact that two of their starters
begin the year on the DL. I know I’m not supposed to bring up the fact that I’m
doing these projections a week into the season, but it would be wrong to not
mention the tragedy of Nick Adenhart’s death.
He was one of the Angel’s most promising starters, but more than that, he was a
teammate and companion of all the guys on that team. Without a doubt, he will
be on the player’s minds this year.

3. Texas
Rangers – 78-84

Like each of the previous 10 seasons or
so, the pitching will be the biggest factor in the Ranger’s success this year.
They’ve got talent at a lot of positions, especially catcher, but a big factor
is going to be how they can get around the fact that Kevin MIlwood is their ace.

4. Seattle
Mariners – 63-99

An interesting team, they’re going to
need Felix Hernandez and Eric Bedard to become the players they were supposed
to be when Seattle gave them the chance in the first place. If you look at
their lineup, they have a lot of good players, and adding Ken Griffey Jr. can
make the middle of their lineup scary. Unfortunately for Seattle fans, the
depth of the team is lacking, and it’s going to show.

 

NL East

1. New York
Mets – 97-65

This is the Met’s year to not choke. I
think. Who knows? In all honesty, I think the Mets are one of the shakier teams
to pick. There’s no question the talent that is there: Beltran, Reyes, Wright,
Santana. And just to make sure there would be no bullpen issues, Omar Minaya
went out and got the best closer in the game (Francisco Rodriguez), along with
one of the better closers in the game (J.J. Putz). The Mets have no excuse this
year.

2. Philadelphia Phillies
- 93-69

The Phillies added Raul Ibanez, but lost
Pat Burrell. Other than that, Chan Ho Park gets added to the roster, making the
2008 World Champions essentially the same team in 2009. Shane Victorino finally
got some recognition, they have one of the best middle infields in baseball,
and their rotation is solid. Plus, they have one of the best pinch hitters in
the game, Matt Stairs. They are going to make a run for the playoffs again. 

3. Atlanta
Braves – 83-79

Bobby Cox is too good to let his team
slip past 3rd in this division. They added Garrett Anderson and Derek Lowe, and
Chipper Jones is still one of the best hitters in baseball. Their rotation
is still somewhat of a mess, and Mike Gonzalez is certainly not an elite
closer, but they should do well enough to beat out the Marlins. 

4. Florida
Marlins – 78-84

They have one of, if not the best,
player in baseball playing shortstop for them. Hanley Ramirez has emerged as
one of the premiere players in the game today. He was listed 1 or 2 on
the majority of fantasy baseball previews, and he’s still only 26
years old. Look for him to be a 40-40 man in the very near future. They also
have a very young, promising rotation. Unfortunately, the rest of the team is
nothing special, and you can be sure that the Marlins are not going to contend
in this division until they finish their rebuilding process. 

5.
Washington Nationals – 61-101

The Nationals appear to be a team full
of players that had promise, but then fizzled later in their careers. Adam Dunn
strikes out more times than he has at bats. Lastings Milledge never came
the player people hyped him up to be. Nick Johnson’s played in 38 games in the
last two years. And none of their starters had a winning record in the last two
years. It’s going to be a long season for Nationals fans.

NL
Central

1. Chicago
Cubs – 103-59

The
Cubs have one of the best rotations in the league, and with Jake Peavy talks
still in the mix, it might only get better. Plus, look for Rich Harden to have
a great season if he can stay healthy. In addition to the pitching, their
lineup is stacked with underrated players. Fukudome is only going to get
better, Aramis Ramirez will continue to produce, Geovany Soto is going to
emerge as one of the better catchers in the game, and the addition of Milton
Bradley adds some depth to their outfield. The Cubs are going to do some damage
in the Central this year. It’s just a matter of fate as to how far they’ll get
in the postseason.

2. Cincinnati Reds – 87-75

I
pick them to come in second, but I think it’s a stretch. The pitching is there
with Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, and Bronson Arroyo. But none of them are
truly established pitchers, and they could all very easily have bad years.
Equally likely, however, is the chance they will all have good years. Their
outfield in extremely young and promising, not to mention fast with the
addition of Willy Taveras. Plus, Joey Votto will become one of the premiere
first baseman in the league this year. Overall, the Reds have a lot of young
talent in a division that has dropped over the past few years. Look for them to
beat out the rest of the mediocrity.

3. St. Louis Cardinals – 84-78

Their
rotation is very average, but Kyle Lohse and Adam Wainwright could have stellar
years. The lineup also has the potential to be one of the more potent offenses
in the National League. They have three legitimate long ball threats in Albert
Pujols, Ryan Ludwick, and Rick Ankiel, and Chris Duncan could be added to that
list, depending on whether or not he returns to ’06/’07 form. They have a good
team, and they’re only missing a couple pieces of the puzzle

4. Milwaukee Brewers – 81-81

For
Milwaukee, pitching is going to be the factor that determines how they do this
year. They lost C.C. Sabathia, who won 11 games for them in 17 appearances
after the all-star break, and he single-handedly led them down the stretch. Ben
Sheets is also gone, and Chris Capuano might not start a game until late May.
That leaves Jeff Suppan as their ace, and an unproven Yovani Gallardo as their
number two.. Other than the rotation, they retained eight starters, and have
Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, two guys that can hit the ball 500 feet
consistently. They will be able to keep up with any team in the National League
offensively. And if the pitching can stay consistently good, the Brewers will
have a good chance. But they took too big of a hit in their rotation to assume
that will be the case.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates – 72-90

The
Pirates are a only a few years shy of contending. Nate McLouth, Adam LaRoche,
and Freddy Sanchez will lead the offense, and they have a couple young guys,
like Nyjer Morgan and Ryan Doumit, who could have breakout seasons. Plus, Andrew
McCutchen is one of the best outfield prospects in baseball. Their pitching is still a problem, and
with a $50 million payroll, you can’t ask for much. But they’re almost there.
And with the team they have now, they won’t be able to avoid a 17^th straight losing record.

6. Houston Astros – 65-97

A
team with Miguel Tejada, Kazuo Matsui, and Ivan Rodriguez will not win a lot of
games. Tejada’s reputation has been mangled by steroid use, and while he can
still be productive, his stats have dropped each of the past five seasons.
Matsui has never played more than 114 games, and has never batted over .300.
Rodriguez is 37 years old, and is a desperate attempt for the Astros. Lance
Berkman and Calos Lee will provide some offense, but the rest of lineup might
as well not exist.

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers – 98-64

Even
though they lost Derek Lowe, the rotation is still deep, and there are enough
veterans to give them solid innings. Manny Ramirez will continue to destroy
National League pitching, and the rest of the lineup will be able to produce
and bring runs around. Plus, Joe Torre always finds a way to be one of the best
managers in the game.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks – 91-71

The
Diamondbacks are going to compete for the fourth playoff spot in the National
League this year. Their young talent has more experience, Brandon Webb eats
innings, and Dan Haren is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game.
They’re going to need to develop a deeper rotation to get any better, but in
this division, it seems first is always up for grabs.

3. San Francisco Giants – 84-78

The
strength this year is going to be the rotation. Tim Lincecum needs to pitch the
same way he did last year, and he will come through. Randy Johnson will
surprise everyone with 10 wins. Even Barry Zito, who was one of the worst free
agent signings San Francisco has ever made, will do better than expected. The
offense will need work, and there are some weak points. But the Giants are
pretty deep, and have some guys who can step up and play.

4. Colorado Rockies – 76-86

The
miracle team of 2007 seems to have disappeared. Five starters from that year
are still around, but last year was a terrible way to come off a National
League championship. Todd Helton was injured, Troy Tulowitzki
basically only played in the second half of the season, and Garrett Atkins
dropped his stats in every category, except strikeouts. The rotation is still
solid, with Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez an excellent one-two punch, but after
that it almost falls apart. They won’t be good enough to play competitively this
year.

5. San
Diego Padres – 68-94

There is no depth to this team, the
offense is going to be miserable, and their rotation is being held together by
Jake Peavy, who is constantly unsure whether or not he wants to stay in San
Diego. The team has little to look forward to this year.  

 

Playoffs

 

Division
Series

White
Sox over Yankees

Red
Sox over Athletics

 

Dodgers over Mets

Cubs
over Phillies

 

Championship Series

White
Sox over Red Sox

 

Cubs
over Dodgers

 

World Series

Cubs
over White Sox

 

Well,
there it is. Apparently, I predict a subway series this year. The 2009 baseball
season has already been established. At the end of the year, I’ll come back and
tell you where I wen’t wrong and why. Until next time, go Sox